Trends & Takes: Current Values in Fantasy Drafts

By Timothy Lewis (@TrendsAndTakes) —June 12th, 2020

There are no bad players in the NFL — only those misevaluated. Our responsibility as fantasy football general managers is to determine what players are more valuable than the market indicates. Sometimes, we manage this by noticing patterns of emotional or logically fallacious reasoning. Other times, we dig deeper and find enlightening explanations. Then, there is perhaps the most valuable skill in the industry: A finely tuned bullshit-meter that filters out unreliable sources, generic coach speak, and narratives with little basis.

Whatever our methodology, we can agree that there is value at every stage of the draft. Personally, I like to be “ahead” of value. I draft players for what I think they are worth, with little regard to the market. This may be tone-deaf when it comes to in-draft strategy, but I trust my assessment of the variables at play and take the leap, before another ambitious drafter does the same. While it’s still early in this unconventional off-season, and I expect the following players’ average draft positions (ADPs) to rise over time, here’s a collection of my evaluations as of now.

Clyde Edwards-Hilaire (PPR RB14, STD RB21)

The Chiefs’ first-round draft pick came down to what they wanted, more than what they needed. Fresh off a Superbowl victory fueled by the greatest offense in the history of the game, the Chiefs doubled down on their model and added firepower. In isolation, Edwards-Hilaire is a good-not-great prospect. His versatility is exceptional and will be taken advantage of in Andy Reid’s running back-friendly offense. It’s not often we see a gifted interior runner function as a diverse route runner. Additionally, Edwards-Hilaire’s stout frame and short-area explosiveness make him a tackle breaking and evading machine.

However, the LSU product’s athletic package leaves something to be desired. Not entirely different from David Montgomery, Edwards-Hilaire’s elusivity is not accompanied by straight-line speed. We won’t see him breaking off 80-yard touchdowns like many of the league’s elite backs. He will rely on scheming to get him the ball in space and high-leverage touches in the red zone. Running back production is always a confluence of factors, with the most important being volume and the team’s offensive efficacy. Clyde has been all but guaranteed these attributes and therefore belongs as a borderline first-round pick in all formats.

Calvin Ridley (PPR WR19, STD WR18)

I’m establishing a pattern of chasing players in bankable offenses in the first quarter of the draft. The goal in this segment is to pursue upside while minimizing risk. In other words, getting players who can be better than their draft position, without much chance of busting altogether. Ridley has the opportunity to be a top-10 wide receiver this season. Between Austin Hooper and Mohamad Sanu, there are roughly 150 vacated targets in this potent Falcons offense. Julio Jones will likely hang around as an elite option for another year, despite his advancing age. The guy is a freak. Be that as it may, the Falcons led the league with nearly 46 pass attempts per game last season. And there’s little reason to believe that will change drastically in 2020.

While it’s a bit optimistic to think all 150 of those Hooper/Sanu targets will go to Ridley, there’s reason to believe it will remove volatility from the third-year wideout’s production. I would be stunned if we didn’t see a 40% increase in slot snap share from his surprisingly-low 10% figure in 2019. These advantageous matchups, along with a greater access to possession-style targets, will accentuate Ridley’s remarkable ability to gain separation. I like the Alabama product to break out all over the place and provide WR1 production, assuming the mantle atop Atlanta’s pecking order. My suggestion is drafting him in the late-third, early-fourth round.

Derrius Guice (PPR RB31, STD RB30)

There’s some of us who will never get off this wagon. The talent is there. He’s fast, he’s big, he’s strong, he runs with malice, and he catches the football with fluidity. On top of that, he’s just 23 years old, with some of the softest competition for touches in the sport. As experienced football fans know, the hold up for Guice has been his health. As brutal as it may sound, and this is a brutal game, for our purposes we are looking for a strong season out of Guice, not necessarily a strong career.

It’s my hunch that this Washington offense may be a smidge underrated. Dwayne Haskins showed flashes in his rookie season and remains a first-round draft pick with an excellent prospect profile. The team discovered a legitimate alpha receiver in Terry McLauren, who can stretch the field and reduce the number of defenders in the box. Finally, there’s a new sheriff in town, as the respected Ron Rivera seeks to bring order to one of the NFL’s more shakily-run franchises. Guice’s small sample size of production in 2019 indicates he can still serve as a focal point for this offense to build upon. Looking at his draft-area contemporaries — Sony Michel, Kerryon Johnson, Kareem Hunt, Ronald Jones — who among them brings anywhere close to the upside in 2020 as Derrius Guice?

Michael Gallup (PPR WR33, STD WR34)

The Cowboys draft CeeDee Lamb and all the sudden there’s a funeral for Michael Gallup. In fact, we are often seeing Lamb go before Gallup in drafts. Make no mistake, I fully believe CeeDee Lamb will be a stud for a long time in the NFL. But I believe the universal acceptance of that sentiment has led to a suppression of Gallup’s perceived value. Let’s add a little bit of perspective.

Michael Gallup actually averaged more targets per game last season than Amari Cooper. While Gallup led the league with 11 drops, Cooper was close behind with 8. Despite Gallup playing two less games than Cooper, he would end the season with just 82 less receiving yards. The third-year receiver out of Colorado State may not have the name equity of his stablemate, but his performance was comparable. Yet, Cooper is being taken as a top-10 receiver while Gallup trickles out of the top-30.

When we consider the Cowboys’ defense being downright dreadful, they could contend for most pass attempts per game. And the result could be prolific. I want a piece of that action and the argument for Gallup’s target share declining is overstated. I like him as a top-24 option at the position.

Mike Gesicki (PPR TE14, STD TE15)

Campaigning for Mike Gesicki is easy. He could be the TE1 but he’s valued as the TE15. The Fitzpatrick-lead Dolphins are going to throw the ball. What’s going under the radar is how effective Gesicki was when he got his opportunities in 2019.

The Penn State product ended up 7th at the position in targets per game, and not because he operated as a possession-style security blanket. He actually had the 3rd most targets among tight ends that traveled 20 or more yards. We can attribute Gesicki’s downfield usage to his spectacular physical profile. He’s one of the biggest and most athletic tight ends in the league. Furthermore, his standout production came while ranking 21st among tight ends in snap share. In his third season, I expect the snap share to rise. Should usage rates hold steady, this propels Gesicki not just into the top-10 conversation at his position, but among its most prolific producers. I’m not leaving a draft without him.

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