Late Picks That Could Win Your League
Written by Timothy Lewis — Follow on Twitter @MrTeeLew
The guys that win you your league aren’t just the studs you pick early on. Sure, the David Johnsons, Antonio Browns, and Aaron Rodgers are vital to success. They do the heavy lifting, but everybody drafting has a shot to nab stars early on. What pushes good teams to greatness are the sleepers a drafter lands, the one’s that nobody else sees coming; the game changers that catch your eye, who others see as no more than waiver wire meat.
Last year we saw the likes of Davante Adams (9th), Tyreek Hill (18th), Tyrell Williams (19th), and Terrelle Pryor (20th) all land in the top 25 WR (Wide Receivers) in standard ESPN scoring.
The top 25 RB (Running Backs) included Jordan Howard (10th), Jay Ajayi (11th), Bilal Powell (16th), and Theo Riddick (25th).
Kyle Rudolph (2nd) and Cameron Brate (7th) were big surprises, each finding themselves among the top 10 TE (Tight Ends).
Here, I detail late round picks that I believe will land inside the top 25 at the WR and RB positions, along with those I project in the top 10 at TE.
Wide Receiver:
Willie Snead — New Orleans Saints (ADP #76 — ESPN)
The Saints had the second most pass plays in the NFL last year. Brandin Cooks has been traded to the Patriots. Willie Snead is entering his third season. These variables should contribute to his first 1,000 yard campaign. The rise of Michael Thomas, along with the signing of Adrian Peterson are sure to consume the attention of defenses. Snead is an intelligent receiver who finds the soft spot in the coverage. He’s sure-handed and has Drew Brees’ trust. Being the second option at wide receiver in a high-powered, pass-happy offense is worth the late round pick (ADP WR #35). The undrafted Saint is great bet to produce WR2 numbers.
Cameron Meredith — Chicago Bears (ADP #85 — ESPN)
Cameron Meredith is already the best receiver on the Chicago Bears. I know, not the most exciting name you’ll find on the list, but at his average draft position (ADP) I consider him worthy. Now that Alshon Jeffery has moved to Philadelphia, Meredith will assume his role. In limited time on the field, Kevin White has struggled to be productive, and more so, healthy. Kendall Wright is a possession receiver and Victor Cruz is little more than veteran depth. The Illinois State product is tall, athletic, has a condor-like catch radius, and eclipsed 100 yards on four different occasions with the worst quarterback play in football last season. He also plays four games against Detroit and Green Bay, two high scoring offenses that will force the Bears to throw the ball in order to keep pace. Only 17 receivers scored more points after week 4 last year, which may well be a sign of things to come for the Bears’ wideout, who’s currently ranked as the WR #38 by FantasyPros.
DeVante Parker — Miami Dolphins (ADP #118 — ESPN)
There’s few recent prospects that check the boxes the way Parker did coming out of Louisville. And yet, here he is, still just a prospect. Injuries, along with some bumps and bruises, have hampered the third year wideout. Be that as it may, Adam Gase produces studs, and DeVante Parker has the size, hands, and athleticism to be one. After showing flashes last year, this is the season he puts it together. With defenses focused on RB Jay Ajayi, Parker will see friendly matchups and exploit them. If healthy, there is no receiver, and perhaps no player this low in the rankings with comparable upside. Marked with an ADP of WR #47, the Dolphins’ receiver has the ability to give owners top-10 receiver production. Worth the gamble.
Tavon Austin — Los Angeles Rams (ADP #158 — ESPN)
I know you’ve heard this name before, and I know you’re not thrilled, but listen: At his ADP, he’s basically free. We know he has the athletic credentials: The zig, the zag, the absurd acceleration. Now, he’s got a real coach too. The Ram’s offense under the Jeff Fisher regime was anemic. Sean McVay, alternatively, has a real inclination for getting his receivers the ball. As Washington’s offensive coordinator last season, McVay produced two 1000 yard receivers, Pierre Garçon and DeSean Jackson, while slot-man Jamison Crowder also managed to compile 847 receiving yards. Austin has the speed to take the top off of the defense like Jackson, and the elusiveness to produce after the catch like Crowder. With minimal competition at the Ram’s WR position and more creative scheming, The speedster could finally have the breakout year we’ve been awaiting.
Running Back:
C.J. Prosise — Seattle Seahawks (ADP #87 — ESPN)
What many see is the glut at Seattle’s RB position. Eddie Lacy is the new big man on campus while Thomas Rawls has faded into obscurity. One might even say Eddie took his lunch. Prosise, meanwhile, is nimble, has sure hands in the passing game, and carved a very certain role as the receiving back for the Seahawks. However, the Notre Dame product is instinctive and shifty, meaning he could see his touches increase as a change of pace running option as well. After all, he managed 8.1 yards per touch — first at his position in the NFL last season — albeit on limited opportunities. It’s easy to imagine the second year back totaling 900 total yards and 5 TDs with a defined role, making him a great pick as the #39 RB off the board. He gets a big time bump in PPR leagues.
Matt Forte — New York Jets (ADP #92 — ESPN)
Matt Forte is critically undervalued. The “old running back” stigma, I suppose. Last year, Forte showed he still has the athleticism and skill to perform at the position. Unfortunately, he was tragically overworked, with four games of 25 or more touches in the first half of the season. Now in a committee with another versatile back, Bilal Powell, Forte won’t have to worry about his body breaking down. Many are overlooking two critical details: First, Powell is 5’10”, 204 lbs., meaning he’s probably not a guy that can handle a large workload for a full season. Second, Forte is the more talented back. Considering Powell is going off the board over 40 picks earlier, the veteran stud has huge value at his current ADP. Look for a healthy Matt Forte to outscore his committee partner this season as he fights off father time.
Samaje Perine — Washington Redskins (ADP #121 — ESPN)
In the shadow of woman puncher, Perine is an underappreciated talent coming out of Oklahoma. As a runner, the rookie likes to plant his foot and make a single cut up field, bludgeoning tacklers with his girth and physicality (5’11, 233 lbs). Last season Washington ranked 30th in red zone efficiency, and it’s clear that’s why Samaje has been brought in. Right away, he will be a touchdown vulture, to the ire of Rob Kelley owners I’m sure. Speaking of Kelly, his time is ticking. Taking the job of a laughably bad Matt Jones does not qualify you as a starting back in the NFL, nor did his ensuing production. As the season goes along, or possibly as early as the preseason, Perine will supplant fat Rob as the lead back. With Washington’s strong offensive line, quarterback and receiving talent, there’s massive upside for the first year running back.
Tight End:
Jimmy Graham — Seattle Seahawks (ADP #89 — ESPN)
It is a sin that I have to put Jimmy Graham on this list. We know he‘s got the goods, from playing credentials to athleticism. On a team with a top-10 QB, a strong offense, and limited competition for targets outside of possession receiver, Doug Baldwin, Graham has top-3 potential. Sure, the Seahawks are a run-heavy team, but last season Graham had nearly 1000 receiving yards to go with six touchdowns, outplaying the likes of Delanie Walker and an ALWAYS injured Tyler Eifert. Yet, ESPN still ranks both of them higher going into the 2017 season. Count on the the Seattle tight end to wreak havoc.
Jack Doyle — Indianapolis Colts (ADP #137 — ESPN)
Jack Doyle: Perhaps the least sexy name in fantasy football. He might be the least explosive guy…ever. Sold yet? Here’s some stats that might aid you. The Colts were top 10 in pass plays last year. Doyle was #5 in red zone receptions, #4 in catch rate, and #11 in total receptions at his position. That’s with the presence of of Dwayne Allen on the roster. Now that the position is his more exclusively, the TE out of Western Kentucky will see all the targets he can handle, from an elite quarterback with whom he already has developed rapport. I’ll take Doyle’s production and soft hands in a high powered, TE-friendly offense any day. At the end of the season, look for the Colt to land in the top 6–8 at his position. Take a shot on him and leave a “sexier” option like Eric Ebron to the waivers.
Additional Sleepers:
Chris Conley — WR — Kansas City Chiefs (ADP #351 — ESPN)
At 6’2”, Conley has massive hands, sub-4.40 speed, a 45-inch vertical, and a 3rd round draft pedigree. As a senior at Georgia, he led the run-first Bulldogs in receiving. Fast-forward to now and Conley is entering his 3rd season in the NFL, a prime breakout year for the wide receiver position. After the jump in receptions from his freshman to sophomore year (17 to 44), the Kansas City prospect is primed to shine. With oft-targeted Jeremy Maclin out the door, and an absolute dearth of options outside of Spencer Ware, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Conley could see 80+ targets come his way in the 2017 season as the team’s most “conventional” wideout.
Alvin Kamara — RB — New Orleans Saints (ADP #157 — ESPN)
I love rookie running backs. And there are worse things to be than the do-it-all gadget back on the New Orleans Saints. Kamara is a natural pass catcher, but not someone necessarily relegated a satellite role. At 5’10”, 215 lbs., he can run outside and between the tackles, providing a dynamic versatility that Sean Payton will employ in ways impossible with Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram. Yes, those guys. That’s where all the fuss is, isn’t it? Who gets what touches? Forget them. Alvin, the rookie from Tennessee, does not face a dilemma of opportunity, having a defined role. He also maintains fantastic upside in light of injury. Anybody that has standalone value while also being a lottery ticket (think Tevin Coleman), should be drafted. Tim Hightower, now departed to San Francisco, was able to provide for owners in 2015 and 2016 as a backup RB. Kamara could have a similar impact.
Austin Hooper — TE — Atlanta Falcons (ADP #209 — ESPN)
Hooper is now entering his sophomore season in the NFL. Hunter Henry, a trendy pick this year, was the only rookie tight end to out-perform him. With a 3rd round draft pedigree, the Falcons have invested enough capital to infer that the Stanford product is a part of their plans. Last season, Hooper was 4th in yards per target at his position, compiling 271 receiving yards and 3 TDs. At 6’4”, 254 lbs., Austin looks the part and faces little competition for a role. A strong running game and the presence of Julio Jones will open up the field, giving the second year TE top-10 potential. With an ADP of the #18 TE off the board, Hooper will likely go undrafted, so if you don’t scoop him up, be sure to have him on your watch list.
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